Chris Paul couldn't get it done for us on Wednesday night, bringing our Look of the Day record to 1-2 on the week. We still have time to scratch out a profitable week, so let's start on Thursday with our favorite bet on the loaded college basketball slate.
Villanova vs. Marquette, Thursday, March 14, 9:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Villanova was a tough watch in the first round of the Big East Tournament, as it scraped by DePaul, 58-57, in the final minute as a 24-point favorite. The Wildcats shot close to their season average in terms of field-goal percentage and three-point field-goal percentage, but they couldn't even crack 60 points against the worst defensive team in the conference.
Part of the reason for that is Nova's snail-like pace. Kyle Neptune's squad ranks 348th out of 362 teams in KenPom's adjusted tempo. This isn't a high-powered scoring offense, so the Wildcats aim to slow the game down and limit possessions as much as possible to increase the variance of the final score. Their strength is on defense, as they rank 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
On the other side, Marquette will be playing without star point guard Tyler Kolek, who leads the country in assists per game (7.6). The Golden Eagles are a well-oiled machine with Kolek running the offense, but they don't run as smoothly without their main playmaker. Marquette averaged 16.8 assists per game before Kolek went down with an oblique injury. In three games since, they've averaged just 10.3.
Kolek dished out 11 and nine assists, respectively, in two games against Villanova in the regular season. Marquette won't have the same flow on offense and won't be able to create as many easy buckets this time around. This has the makings of a slow-paced, low-scoring battle that goes under the total.
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