Detroit Tigers 2024 Over/Under Regular Reason Win Total

The Detroit Tigers will look to take that next step this season in the American League Central. We’re here to share our MLB odds series and make a Tigers over-under win-total prediction for the 2024 season.

The Tigers finished the 2023 season with a 78-84 record, which was good for second place in the AL Central. They had a furious finish. Now, they hope to capitalize on that finish and make some inroads this season.

Spencer Torkelson was one of the best highlights last season, finishing with a batting average of .233 with 31 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 88 runs. Meanwhile, Tarik Skubal was one of the best pitchers in baseball, finishing with a record of 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA over 15 starts after making a midseason return from elbow flexor tendon surgery. Matt Manning also had a good season, going 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA through 15 starts.

The Tigers have some prospects coming. However, they are not ready for the big time yet. In the meantime, the Tigers brought some free agents in to stop the gap. Kenta Maeda finished 6-8 with a 4.23 ERA through 20 starts with the Minnesota Twins and will now attempt to make headway with the Tigers. Also, Jack Flaherty went 8-9 with a 4.99 ERA through 27 combined starts with the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles last season. Flaherty will now attempt to make some progress with his new team. Furthermore, the Tigers also added Mark Canha through a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers after he went .262 with 11 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 51 runs with an on-base percentage of .355 last season.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Tigers 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 79.5 Wins: -105

Under 79.5 Wins: -115

*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Tigers Will Win 79.5 Games

Torkelson will take that next step in his development. Amazingly, he can hit anywhere and direct the ball where he wants it to go. Center fielder Parker Meadows is a great field. Yet, his bat remains stagnant. Meadows finished with a batting average of .232 with three home runs, 13 RBIs, 19 runs, and eight stolen bases through 125 at-bats. Despite all that, there is so much potential for Meadows to take that next step and be the speed threat the Tigers need. He could easily have 30-40 stolen bases. Catcher Jake Rogers is a solid backstop. Additionally, he has a hard-hit rate of 45.6 percent.

The pitching staff is where the Tigers will take that next step. Skubal is an ace with an elite fastball and changeup. Meanwhile, Maeda has a split-finger changeup that can deceive anyone. Reese Olson went 5-7 with a 3.99 ERA last season with 103 strikeouts and 33 walks through 103.2 innings last season.

But we have not talked about this bullpen yet. Specifically, Alex Lange went 7-5 with a 3.68 ERA with 26 saves in 32 chances. There is so much potential for him to take that next step. Additionally, Jason Foley is a setup man who can throw 98 MPH. Will Vest has improved his mechanics and has a fastball and slider combo that can be super effective.

The Tigers will win 80 games because Torkelson will be elite, and Meadows will be solid. Also, the rotation and bullpen will all take the next steps and make strides.

Why The Tigers Won’t Win 79.5 Games

The lineup is still weak. Ultimately, Torkelson cannot do it all by himself, and neither can Meadows or Rogers. Zach McInstry has a 33.5 percent hard-hit rate. Also, shortstop Javier Baez finished with a batting average of .222 with just nine home runs, 59 RBIs, and 58 runs with an on-base percentage of .267. Third baseman Matt Vierling was not particularly exciting, either.

Casey Mize was the first overall pick in 2018. Unfortunately, his career has been derailed by injuries since then. His fastball is down to 93-95 MPH, and his splitter is not as good as it once was. There are so many questions about whether the once elite prospect can stay healthy. If he can regain his form, he could form an elite  1-2 combo with Skubal. But there is not much evidence that shows that this will happen.

The Tigers will not win 80 games because they still have one of the worst lineups in baseball. Furthermore, they don’t have a rotation that is strong enough to carry them.

Final Tigers Over/Under Win Total Prediction

The Tigers have difficult games against the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, and Chicago Cubs on the docket. Yet, they also have games against the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers. But let’s look at their own division. Tigers went 8-5 against the Chicago White Sox, 9-4 against the Cleveland Guardians, 10-3 against the Kansas City Royals, and 8-5 against the Minnesota Twins. If they can keep doing well against their division, they can give themselves a chance to win 80 games. But they need to take care of everyone else. We feel they will do just that. It won’t be a big explosion. But the Tigers can definitely finish 82-80.

Click Here for more betting news & prediction 

Final Tigers Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 79.5 Wins: -105